Opinion: California’s population bump won’t make up for its long term slide

When the U S Census Bureau in recent times revealed a small increase in California s population it came as a welcome sign to specific that the state was growing again The input even revealed a slightly reduced level of out-migration Good news right Unfortunately not good enough Last year s count still leaves the state s numbers below where they stood in and its rise rate is below the national average and well below that of key competitor states Comparing census numbers from to California s population has increased by less than in Texas Arizona North Carolina Georgia and Utah the increases range from to nearly And the prognosis for California s future increase is not good given that preponderance of the fresh uptick seems to have been the impact of the historic immigration surge during the Biden years Under President Donald Trump the door for a great number of foreign-born newcomers has been slammed shut Although specific businesses and immigration proponents rue Trump s actions it s not as if large numbers of immigrants are invariably a plus The Congressional Budget Office in noted increases in immigrants in the United States as favorable to the economic system overall but the current newcomers appear to come from poorer countries numerous are undocumented and in the short term at least that could put stress on local economies and on the salaries of low-income workers who compete with them for living space jobs and social services Worse for California the slight decrease in out-migration last year doesn t come close to fixing what s been a decades-long exodus A dimming beacon The numbers tell the story From to the state added international expatriates compared to a net domestic migration loss of million residents California s out-migration has come to resemble the pattern long associated with Rust Belt states Over the last years more than million net domestic displaced persons a population about the same as the Seattle metropolitan area have moved to other parts of the nation from California State planners don t see a turnaround in the offing either Consider that in demographers projected that California s population would grow from million to million by But nowadays the projection is for just million Californians People are leaving or not coming to California for rational reasons and majority of of them are economic One scrutiny exhibited that minorities including Asian Latino and Black people generally enjoy higher real incomes and home ownership in Southern or selected heartland cities than in the East or West coast metros These groups have been flocking to Dallas Houston Atlanta or Miami rather than California in search of opportunity Even given the influx of immigrants to California the foreign-born population of cities in Texas Florida and parts of Ohio North Carolina and Tennessee has been growing faster than San Francisco s and L A s foreign-born numbers are declining Long a beacon for the young and ambitious in particular at present California ranks toward the bottom in attracting all newcomers from other parts of the country Rather a multitude of affluent young professionals are migrating out of the state In California lost more than net foreigners or older the bulk of whom had either four-year or associate degrees while that cohort s numbers surged in Nevada Arizona Texas Florida and the Carolinas Fewer workers One new survey identified the five best regions for young job seekers four of the five were in the South Plenty of young people thinking about their future lives choose areas where family formation is higher such as Utah Texas and again the Southern states From to California s fertility rate the number of children a woman will have in her lifetime dropped from th highest in the nation to th This suggests that California s competitors will continue to add workers faster in the future than the Golden State California still has the the majority foreign-born residents in the United States and it dominates in terms of the well-off including retirees but even this demographic group is moving on Last year the Wall Street Journal disclosed on IRS evidence for that displayed that affluent newcomers took almost billion out of California paralleling losses in such states as New York Illinois and New Jersey Related Articles Marin description links population decline to economic displacement Specific COVID shocks were short-lived others more permanent These five Bay Area charts show how Bay Area exodus over Population in local counties grew in Opinion How California can break its addiction to fast rise Walters California s aging population will test whether demography is destiny To Angelenos who get stuck in bumper-to-bumper freeway traffic every day the prospect of a diminished population might seem enticing Yet the decline in population and the specifics of who is leaving or not coming suggest that the state will be facing risky deficits down the line Fewer young energetic residents and their children doesn t make for a bright future As John Maynard Keynes reported of the challenges of overpopulation the chaining up of the one devil may if we are careless only serve to lose another still fiercer and more intractable California already suffers a essential shortage of skilled workers that is expected to get worse Companies don t invest where workers are not readily available The state must address the reasons for its fading attractions Its security- and wealth-creation machine for ordinary citizens is stalled largely because of housing costs Add to that reduced economic opportunity and long-term stagnation seems assured The youthful force that made the state the largest part remarkable region on the planet isn t a given It is time to stop and read the statistics and figure out how to restore the promise of our once Golden State Joel Kotkin is a contributing opinion writer to the Los Angeles Times Los Angeles Times Distributed by Tribune Content Agency